Big gamble, or best chance?

Ever since the near inevitable has happened and Narendra Modi has been named the BJP’s candidate for prime minister in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, most of the media coverage around his candidature has been centred on the big ‘risk’ the BJP is taking with this nomination. Several articles and editorials assert that his nomination is a big gamble on the part of the BJP, which has been in the opposition for almost a decade now.   

They suggest that Modi’s refusal to apologise for his actions (or inaction) during the Gujarat riots and his reluctance and failure to reach out to the Muslim community—which makes up about 14% of India’s population—since, will greatly hamper the BJP’s chances in the 2014 elections. His history is enough to make even several Hindus squirm.   

While this is not incorrect, far from being the BJP’s big ‘gamble’, this column is of the view that he is the BJP’s best chance, and perhaps even the ideal choice from the party’s point of view. Since the fading—and pushing—away of the old guard, he has emerged as the strongest leader in the BJP, a party without many other forceful personalities.  

His impressive, albeit frequently challenged,record of economic growth and development in the state of Gujarat make many young people yearn for a leader as ‘decisive’ as him at the centre. Frustrated with years of mismanagement of the country’s economy and a near paralysis in policymaking, many Indians favour a leader such as Modi, who they believe will do a better job. Economic growth in India has petered out over the last few years and there is more than a shadow of doubt about its prospects going forward. To many, Modi is seen as the person who could, at the very least, give the country some sort of direction.  

One other area where Modi has distinct advantage over whoever the Congress puts up as its candidate for prime minister is his reputation for clean government. The scale—and even diversity—of corruption scandals that have plagued the current Congress administration has meant that corruption will be a key campaign issue, something that sits perfectly within Modi’s ‘good governance’ platform. In a country where corruption is rife and has never been more prominent on the national conscience as over the last couple of years, Modi’s reputation for clean government is no trivial matter.   

What I have gauged from my interactions with young Indians who would typically fit the bracket of intelligent and well-educated is telling. Many of those uncomfortable with the idea of Modi as prime minister even two years ago, are not today. These are not religious hardliners or right-wing nutcases, and they fully acknowledge that Modi has a chequered past.  

While as recently as two years ago they were willing to overlook his impressive economic record and formed their opinion of him on the basis of his chequered past, now they are reluctantly willing to overlook the same past and are hopeful of him winning the election on the basis of his agenda of good governance. This is admittedly not a large enough sample, but is nevertheless indicative of a possible change in the mindsets of several Indians.  

It is a wave the BJP ought to ride. There is no better person than Modi to steer this ship, that has, for the better part of the last decade, struggled to find direction. He is their best chance.

 

(This appeared as a column in The Himalayan Times on 22 September 2013).