Dilli abhi duur hai

Narendra Modi created a buzz in New Delhi last week, providing his first clear hint at prime ministerial ambition. Modi, invited to address students at Shri Ram College of Commerce, one of India’s premier tertiary education institutions, used the occasion to reach out to the country’s youth and to establish his credentials as the right man for the biggest job in India.

In the past few months, references to Modi being appointed the prime ministerial candidate for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been ubiquitous in the Indian media. The next general election has already been pitted as a Modi versus Rahul Gandhi contest, despite the former not having stated anything to this effect. Modi has maintained silence on the subject and let everyone else do the talking on his behalf. Until now.

On Wednesday, he provided the first clear indication he is aspiring for a bigger role on the national stage. Articulate and compelling, Modi did so by providing an insight into his own aspirations for India and its youth. He talked about the youth’s disillusionment with and the erosion of its confidence in India’s political system. India’s future, he claimed, will depend on how well India can reap the benefits of its demographic dividend and on how it can best utilise its natural resources.

He talked about Gujarat – where he has been chief minister for the last 12 years – and remarked how the state has continued to prosper economically despite having the same laws, the same bureaucrats and the same political system that some have held responsible for India’s shortcomings. This was due to his model of good governance, he said. He charmed the audience with the use of colourful anecdotes and was clearly out there to sell his model of development, one that has been successful in Gujarat. And the key message: What has worked in Gujarat can work in Delhi.  

It is the view of the Indian right and a large chunk of the urban middle class that in Narendra Modi lies not just the BJP’s but also India’s best shot at redemption, so to speak. The commonly held view is that in light of the various challenges the country is confronted with in the form of huge corruption scandals and a rapidly slowing economy among others, India needs a ‘strong’ leader, a trait they almost always associate with Modi.

Moreover, it is assumed – with almost complete disregard for the current state of Indian national politics – that if Modi does indeed become the prime minister, he will be a ‘strong’ leader. What is mostly ignored is that a large part of this ‘strength’ that is often associated with Modi stems from the absolute majority the BJP enjoys in the Gujarat state assembly. By extension, this clear majority gives him absolute control over the state’s political machinery and its bureaucracy, allowing for efficiency in decision-making and good governance.

In the same vein, to be a ‘strong’ leader at the centre, Modi needs ‘strength’. This ‘strength’ will be derived from the degree of political control Modi and the BJP will have in the lower house of parliament. Even if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is to win the next general election, Modi will have to continually placate and appease allies, affecting his ability to act swiftly.

In Gandhinagar, neither is Modi in bed with any allies and nor does he have to woo any. At the centre, it can be said with almost complete certainty no one party will win a clear majority of seats, thus diminishing any one leader’s ‘strength’.

Hence, the assumption that Narendra Modi will be a strong leader if he goes on to become prime minister and is therefore the answer to all of India’s problems, is a flawed one. The assumption is a huge leap of faith, and in my view, a tad unrealistic and lacking in reason. Modi may yet go on to become a very successful prime minister if elected, but that will not be because of his success in Gujarat. It will be because he would have done things differently at the centre.

(This was a column printed in The Himalayan Times on 10 February, 2013)