Six months into the emergency in Nepal, and the problems confronting the Himalayan Kingdom are far from abating anytime soon. When on February 1st, King Gyanendra assumed direct control over the country and its administration, he said he had a vision- he envisioned that Nepal would be a flourishing democracy after he had tackled the Maoist problem and reinstated the parliament. Several people in Nepal did not doubt what seemed then to be a genuine desire to pull the country out from the doldrums. The efficiency with which the royal coup d’etat was carried out only reaffirmed this view to many. A few praised the King for his bold and decisive move- after all, he had a vision for the nation, and one with vision is a great leader. If the last six months are anything to go by, it is apparent that the King has failed to realize his vision for a democratic and peaceful Nepal. In fact, the situation has worsened. An increasingly large number of people are now coming out on to the streets in protests against the monarchy and the King’s revered status seems to be fast eroding - no longer is he an incarnation of Lord Vishnu for much of the Nepalese populace.
Meanwhile, the audacity of the nature of attacks being carried out by the Maoists continues to amaze. With each passing day an increasing number of army men are being killed or captured. The Maoists control large swathes of the countryside and the amount of territory under their control is gradually increasing. The Maoists refuse to talk to the king and the king maintains that he will not hold negotiations with the Maoists as they are “terrorists”. As a result of this stalemate, both sides are resorting to violence in an attempt to secure victory over the other, but neither is capable of doing so. While the Maoists are significantly fewer in number, the rugged terrain in the west of the country is perfectly suited for their kind of guerilla warfare and the Nepalese army cannot make inroads into territories controlled by them. Similarly, the Maoists cannot make a move in on the cities or else they will be badly outnumbered and eventually lose far more men than they can afford to… the result, another stalemate. Both parties do not possess the ability to convincingly defeat the other.
The political parties too are now demanding that the King be overthrown. The Maoists have offered them a hand of friendship and have even guaranteed the political parties the support of their “army” to fight the feudalistic king’s army - an offer which the political parties naturally declined. Instead the political parties have invited the Maoists to join the mainstream political parties in “their” struggle for democracy, under the condition that the Maoists lay down their weapons - something which the Maoists have refused to do. The result is yet another stalemate. At a time when the political parties should be making a serious attempt to negotiate with the king and persuade him to restore democracy, they are refusing to talk to the king.
Therefore, Nepal now has a King promising that he will restore peace and subsequently democracy after crushing the Maoist revolution; the Maoists wanting to establish a republic after overthrowing the King and drafting a new constitution that would be prepared by an independent constituent assembly; and the political parties who want democracy as soon as possible and now to add some spice to the whole saga, want to overthrow the king as well.
Nepal is confronted with a tri-partite struggle for power with no side having a semblance of an upper hand over the other. A political solution to the problem does not seem to be forthcoming anytime soon. What will happen in the days to come is anybody’s guess.
Meanwhile, the audacity of the nature of attacks being carried out by the Maoists continues to amaze. With each passing day an increasing number of army men are being killed or captured. The Maoists control large swathes of the countryside and the amount of territory under their control is gradually increasing. The Maoists refuse to talk to the king and the king maintains that he will not hold negotiations with the Maoists as they are “terrorists”. As a result of this stalemate, both sides are resorting to violence in an attempt to secure victory over the other, but neither is capable of doing so. While the Maoists are significantly fewer in number, the rugged terrain in the west of the country is perfectly suited for their kind of guerilla warfare and the Nepalese army cannot make inroads into territories controlled by them. Similarly, the Maoists cannot make a move in on the cities or else they will be badly outnumbered and eventually lose far more men than they can afford to… the result, another stalemate. Both parties do not possess the ability to convincingly defeat the other.
The political parties too are now demanding that the King be overthrown. The Maoists have offered them a hand of friendship and have even guaranteed the political parties the support of their “army” to fight the feudalistic king’s army - an offer which the political parties naturally declined. Instead the political parties have invited the Maoists to join the mainstream political parties in “their” struggle for democracy, under the condition that the Maoists lay down their weapons - something which the Maoists have refused to do. The result is yet another stalemate. At a time when the political parties should be making a serious attempt to negotiate with the king and persuade him to restore democracy, they are refusing to talk to the king.
Therefore, Nepal now has a King promising that he will restore peace and subsequently democracy after crushing the Maoist revolution; the Maoists wanting to establish a republic after overthrowing the King and drafting a new constitution that would be prepared by an independent constituent assembly; and the political parties who want democracy as soon as possible and now to add some spice to the whole saga, want to overthrow the king as well.
Nepal is confronted with a tri-partite struggle for power with no side having a semblance of an upper hand over the other. A political solution to the problem does not seem to be forthcoming anytime soon. What will happen in the days to come is anybody’s guess.
1 comment:
a great read.... higly analytical! i like the way u have presented the stalemates.. even a layman can get what u r saying... love it
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